CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-01-20T09:09:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-01-20T09:09ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18911/-1
CME Note: The source of this CME is a filament eruption visible in SDO/AIA 304 starting around 2022-01-20T08:00Z followed by notable dimming best seen in SDO/AIA 193 and some rising loops after the filament erupts (visible in both SDO/AIA 193 and 171). The source location is just NW of AR 12933. This is a possible combined arrival with the 2022-01-21T09:53Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-01-24T17:09Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-01-23T16:15Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 530.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v2 u_r = 585.826 Acceleration: -0.520502 Duration in seconds: 284775.99 Duration in days: 3.2960184 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -0.52 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 437.6 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 23/01/2022 Time: 16:15 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 82.15 hour(s)
Difference: 24.90 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2022-01-21T07:00Z
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